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In further analysis of last year's export figures, Tom Bruce-Gardyne compares shipments to sales in the all-important US market. But with falling American demand and the threat of tariffs, he concludes the real lesson from 2024 is - look to the world beyond …

The oscillating effects of the Covid pandemic and what it did to global supply chains have begun to settle down. Having surged to a peak of £6.2 billion in 2022, the value of Scotch whisky exports experienced a painful contraction which continued through to the first half of last year which was 18% down on the same period in 2023. As reported, the full-year figures for 2024 came in just 3.7% short of the year before at £5.4bn, and were up 3.9% in volume to the equivalent of 1.4bn bottles.

The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) talked of 'turbulent global trading conditions' before turning on the UK government to demand a reduction in domestic tax which sounds a slight non-sequitur. "But support for the industry's global success starts at home," retorts the SWA's chief executive, Mark Kent. "For too long, the industry has been taken for granted, with the misguided and simplistic belief that decisions taken in Scotland and the wider UK won't impact an industry which exports 90% of its product, supports a large local supply chain and plays a valuable part in attracting tourists to Scotland."  

Shipments to the US fell by less than 1% to £971m, but are still below their £1.06bn peak in 2019. Bottled blends were up 6% in value, while single malts fell 10% and by over a fifth in volume. Meanwhile, as the whisky was being loaded onto ships this side of the Atlantic and unloaded into warehouses the other, things have not been going well in the market.

According to the latest data from the Distilled Spirits Council of the US, sales of blended Scotch fell by almost a million cases last year, a drop of 13.6%, and by 15% in terms of gross supplier revenue. Single malts fell 16.8% in volume, and by 14.1% in value. Scotch was easily the worst-performing category in America where overall spirits were essentially flat, give or take a per centage point in 2024.

The US remains the most valuable market, accounting for almost a fifth of total Scotch exports, and that is unlikely to change. However, it is fair to say that growth appears elusive right now, and that's before Trump unleashes any of his threatened tariffs. There are rumours of increased shipments to the States just in case, but if true that would be happening around now. There was no dramatic shift in December following the US election.

If America is proving to be unreliable at present, as much in politics as in whisky, it is time to look elsewhere. And where better than Turkey which has leapt past France and Spain to become the world's third most valuable importer of bottled blends. Overall, it now sits in eighth position in value having jumped 36.7% to £178m in 2024. By volume it grew 14% to the equivalent of 41m bottles to squeeze past China into ninth place.

Delving into the Turkish figures reveals that last year was no blip. Shipments of bottled blends which account for over 90% of the value, got to £60m in 2015, then slipped backwards until 2022 when they hit £96m. A year later they were worth £122m and in 2024 reached £168m. Single malts are a long way behind but they are moving in the right direction.

China may have suffered the worst fall in value among the top ten markets, but at £161m it is still 80% up on its pre-Covid high in 2019. Its imports also come indirect from Singapore, Scotch whisky's third most valuable market last year which fell 18% to £310m, though is marginally up on 2019. China is liable to remain volatile and see trading down, but the continued woes of whisky's arch-rival Cognac, which has been hit by Beijing's anti-dumping probe on EU brandy, may be an opportunity for some.

All the while India keeps powering on as the fifth most valuable market, up 14% to £248m, and the biggest by volume, growing 14.6% to an equivalent of 192m bottles, followed by France on 177m, up 2% on 2023. The word 'equivalent' should be underlined however, since much of the whisky is imported in bulk to be dribbled into bottles of Indian whisky. Only around 35m of the total is bottled in Scotland as blends and single malts, to which one should add an unknown quantity of bottled-in-India Scotch brands like Teacher's.

It will be interesting to see how this dynamic will change if India ever gets round to lowering its 150% import tax as part of a longed-for Free-Trade Agreement with the UK. Two weeks ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced he would slash tariffs to 100% but only on Bourbon, which rather rubs it in for those who've negotiated on behalf of the industry for years. Little old Britain and its most valuable food and drink export were left like Cindarella, while Trump and Modi headed to the ball in a great cloud of Jim Beam.